New Delhi, Nov 2: Global warming beyond the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold could accelerate glacier loss, increase water shortages and heighten mountain hazards, posing serious risks to India’s Himalayan regions, two new scientific reports have warned.
The reports accessed by Kashmir Convener cautioned that exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree Celsius target, even temporarily, could trigger large-scale and potentially irreversible changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, including glaciers, polar ice sheets, permafrost and sea ice.
The findings assume significance for India, where Himalayan glaciers support river systems, agriculture, hydropower generation and drinking water supplies for millions of people.
Titled ‘Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown’ and ‘State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot’, the reports accessed Kashmir Convener called for immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels to limit the damage.
James Kirkham, chief scientist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) and coordinating lead author of the report quoted by International media outlet has said that the consequences of ice loss were no longer confined to distant polar regions but were increasingly affecting mountain communities and populations downstream.
“I was shocked to see the images from Nepal in 2026, and from Sikkim in 2023, but not surprised. That’s because as temperatures continue to rise, the mountains are destabilising, and floods and events like this become more likely,” Kirkham said.
He warned that thawing permafrost, which acts as the frozen glue holding high mountain areas together, could trigger more landslides, avalanches and mountain collapses, with devastating consequences for downstream communities.
Kirkham also cautioned that glacier retreat could have long-term implications for India’s water security.
“Melting ice initially increases water volumes, but the water dries up once the glaciers begin to dwindle,” he has said, highlighting the implications for agriculture, drinking water, irrigation and hydropower generation.
He stressed the need to strengthen early warning systems and involve local communities in monitoring mountain hazards, while calling for cross-border information sharing as glacier-related disasters often have transboundary consequences.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), in a separate assessment released in March this year, said glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya were losing ice at twice the rate recorded at the turn of the century.
The assessment found that the region’s glaciers had lost about 12 per cent of their total area and nine per cent of their estimated ice reserves between 1990 and 2020.
ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho described the findings as a warning that the region was approaching a critical phase, calling for expanded glacier monitoring and greater investment in climate adaptation.
India-specific projections also underline the importance of limiting global warming.
Lilian Schuster, a researcher at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, quoted by International media in September 2025 that India could preserve a substantially larger share of its glacier mass if global temperatures were stabilised around 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“If, globally, temperatures are stabilized around 1.5° C, around 60 per cent of the glacier mass can be preserved until 2100 in India. But, if we reach around 3° Celsius of warming, it would be only around 40 per cent of the mass that remains in India until 2100,” Schuster said.
She also highlighted the importance of smaller glaciers in Ladakh, saying local communities depend on runoff from small rivers fed by glacier melt, particularly during dry periods.
“If these small glaciers disappear, we will see a change in the run-off regimes,” she said, warning that glacier loss could affect biodiversity, local livelihoods, cultural traditions and tourism.
The ICIMOD assessment further highlighted that the smallest glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya were shrinking faster than larger ones, increasing the risk of localised water shortages and glacial lake outburst floods.
The new ICCI-UNEP reports said global emissions must decline by at least five per cent annually, beginning immediately, with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions achieved by mid-century.
They also called for deep reductions in methane and black carbon emissions, alongside increased investment in renewable energy, battery technologies and sustainable carbon removal.
The scientists said returning global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below could slow the rate of sea-level rise and potentially halt or partially reverse glacier, snowpack and sea ice loss over decades to centuries.
However, several metres of sea-level rise are already locked in over many centuries due to the long-term retreat of polar ice sheets, making the pace of future ice loss particularly important for coastal communities.
The reports also warned that thawing permafrost could release additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, creating a feedback loop that would further accelerate global warming.
They suggested that a temperature target closer to 1.0 degree Celsius, or even lower over the coming centuries, may be necessary to provide a safer climate for the Earth’s ice systems.
The scientists also called for greater financial support for climate adaptation, resilience-building and measures to address unavoidable losses and damage.
The reports have been prepared by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative in coordination with the UN Environment Programme and are expected to contribute to discussions ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye.
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