Suhail Khan
Srinagar, Nov 5: Climate change increased the economic damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Arnab in India by 33 per cent, strengthened its maximum wind speed by around 5 per cent and increased eyewall rainfall by 11 per cent, according to a study by researchers at Imperial College London.
The study, titled Climate Change Impact Attribution of Tropical Cyclone Arnab, accessed by Kashmir Convener estimates that approximately 25 per cent of the cyclone’s total economic losses were attributable to human-induced global warming, compared with the damage that would have occurred under pre-industrial climate conditions.
The findings come amid a year of widespread extreme weather events across India, with a new assessment reporting that the country experienced such events on 251 of the 273 days between January 1 and September 30, accounting for nearly 92 per cent of the period.
According to the Climate India 2026 report released by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down To Earth on November 4, extreme weather events claimed 3,320 lives, affected 4.25 million hectares of cropped land, destroyed 1,28,334 houses and killed 47,244 animals during the first nine months of this year.
Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest number of deaths at 811, followed by Maharashtra with 286 and Bihar with 245. Maharashtra suffered the largest agricultural losses, with 2.83 million hectares of cropped land affected, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 0.69 million hectares.
The report also highlighted significant changes in India’s weather patterns. February 2026 was the country’s driest February since 1901 and the fourth warmest in 125 years.
Despite the southwest monsoon recording 13 per cent less rainfall than the long-period average, heavy rainfall, floods and landslides were reported somewhere in the country on all 122 days of the monsoon season.
The five-year assessment, covering 2022 to 2026, found that extreme weather events claimed 16,303 lives and affected at least 20.6 million hectares of cropped land across the country, underlining the mounting human and economic costs of weather-related disasters.
Against this backdrop, the Imperial College study examined how global warming influenced Cyclone Arnab’s intensity, rainfall and economic impact using the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS).
The analysis found that climate change increased the storm’s maximum wind speed by 9.3 kmph and its eyewall rainfall rate by 1.1 mm per hour.
The likelihood of a cyclone of similar intensity has also increased by approximately 19 per cent compared with pre-industrial conditions, the researchers said.
Cyclone Arnab was classified as a Category 4 storm, with a lifetime maximum wind speed of 220 kmph over the Bay of Bengal. At landfall, it was equivalent to a Category 3 cyclone, with winds of around 202 kmph.
The researchers also found that the likelihood of similar intense rainfall events had increased by around 18 per cent. The estimated return period for such rainfall events has declined from 16.7 years under pre-industrial climate conditions to 14.2 years under present-day conditions.
The economic assessment found that climate change contributed approximately 25 per cent of the cyclone’s direct economic damage, with overall losses increasing by 33 per cent compared with the pre-industrial climate baseline.
Dr Nathan Sparks, a researcher in Tropical Cyclone Risk Modelling at Imperial College London’s Department of Physics, said the findings highlighted the immediate economic consequences of climate change for coastal communities.
He said stronger winds and increased rainfall could result in greater destruction of homes and infrastructure, crop losses and damage to livelihoods.
Prof Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute, said the research demonstrated the real-world consequences of continued fossil fuel emissions during major storms.
He noted that while the overall number of tropical cyclones globally remained relatively stable, the storms that formed were becoming more dangerous and powerful.
The researchers also examined a future warming scenario of 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Under this scenario, a cyclone similar to Arnab could have maximum wind speeds 8 per cent higher, eyewall rainfall 22 per cent greater and cause 56 per cent more economic damage than under pre-industrial conditions.
The study assessed economic losses to physical assets using wind-field estimates, damage functions and asset exposure data, while accounting for uncertainties in wind speeds, asset values and damage calculations.
The research is part of the Climate Damage Tracker initiative, which aims to provide rapid estimates of how climate change influences damage from extreme weather events by combining climate attribution with socio-economic impact data.
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