Srinagar, Mar 9: Weather experts on Monday said claims circulating on social media about the possibility of “black snow” or toxic acidic rain in Kashmir due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East are misleading, noting that the likelihood of such an event under current conditions is extremely low.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif told Kashmir Convener the present situation in the Middle East does not involve large-scale destruction of oil infrastructure, such as prolonged burning of oil wells or refineries, which would be required to release massive quantities of soot, sulphur dioxide and other pollutants capable of travelling long distances and affecting precipitation.
He said historical events such as the Gulf War oil fires, when hundreds of oil wells were set ablaze, produced enormous volumes of smoke and pollutants that travelled across regions.
“No comparable scenario has been reported during the current conflict,” he said.
Arif said most incidents reported so far in the region have involved localised military strikes or short-duration fires that were brought under control within hours.
Such emissions generally disperse and dilute significantly in the atmosphere and are unlikely to travel thousands of kilometres in concentrations strong enough to influence weather patterns, he said.
Kashmir lies roughly 1,800 to 4,000 kilometres away from major Middle Eastern conflict zones, and by the time smoke or aerosols from relatively small fires travel such distances, they mix with cleaner air masses and lose most of their intensity, he added.
Arif said phenomena such as black snow or chemically significant acid rain require extremely large and sustained emissions of particulate matter and sulphur compounds, along with specific atmospheric circulation patterns capable of transporting those pollutants towards the Himalayan region.
Under the current circumstances, the possibility of black snow or toxic rainfall in Kashmir due to the ongoing Middle East conflict remains highly unlikely, he said.
The clarification comes amid growing concern online after several posts suggested that pollution from the conflict could be carried by jet streams towards the Himalayan region.
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