Srinagar, November 10: Jammu and Kashmir is preparing for its first significant spell of winter precipitation, with the Meteorological Centre Srinagar forecasting widespread rain in the plains and moderate to heavy snowfall in higher reaches between November 12 and 14.
Ahead of the weather system, district administrations have begun precautionary measures, including restricting tourist movement in vulnerable areas, activating emergency control rooms and advising residents in higher reaches to prepare for possible road closures.
Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, told Kashmir Convener that an initial Western Disturbance would approach Jammu and Kashmir on November 10, potentially bringing light snowfall to isolated higher reaches of north and central Kashmir. The main weather activity, however, is expected from the early hours of November 12 until the morning of November 14.
“This is a significant weather system. While rainfall will dominate in the plains, we expect moderate snowfall across tourist places, marking the season’s first snowfall in Doodhpathri, Pahalgam, Gulmarg and Sonamarg,” Ahmad said.
The department has also indicated a 50 per cent possibility of light snowfall or mixed precipitation over the plains of Shopian, Kulgam, Kupwara, Bandipora and some other areas.
Higher reaches and mountain passes, including Peer Ki Gali, Sinthan Top, Zojila, Razdan Pass, Sadhna Top and Margan Pass, are likely to receive heavy snowfall, with accumulations of one to two feet possible at some locations.
The forecast has raised concerns over road connectivity, particularly in remote and mountainous areas. Ahmad said fresh snowfall could affect traffic on important routes, including the Srinagar-Leh highway via Zojila and the Mughal Road.
Travellers, tourists and transporters have been advised to plan their journeys in advance, check road conditions before departure and follow traffic advisories issued by the authorities.
The weather department has also advised farmers to suspend harvesting operations on November 12 and 13 and ensure that harvested crops are safely stored to prevent damage from rain and snowfall.
The system is expected to bring a sharp fall in daytime temperatures across the region.
“Day temperatures are expected to fall by 6-8 degrees Celsius during the period and are expected to remain around 5-8 degrees Celsius below normal during the subsequent period,” Ahmad said.
Weather conditions are likely to improve towards the late afternoon or evening of November 13.
On Monday, dry weather prevailed across Jammu and Kashmir, with no rainfall recorded during the preceding 24 hours. Shopian recorded the lowest minimum temperature at minus 0.7 degrees Celsius, followed by Pulwama at minus 0.1 degrees Celsius. Srinagar recorded a minimum of 1 degree Celsius at its automatic weather station.
Gurez closed to tourists
Among the areas preparing for possible disruption is Gurez in north Kashmir’s Bandipora district, where the administration has temporarily declared the sector out of bounds for tourists in view of the forecast.
Tourists currently staying in the area have been asked to plan their departure immediately in consultation with the District Control Room.
The administration has also advised candidates scheduled to appear in the OMR-based written examination for the post of Accounts Assistant on November 15 to reach their examination stations well in advance, anticipating possible disruption to road movement.
Expectant mothers residing in upper reaches, whose expected dates of delivery fall within the next month, have been advised to shift to nearby hospitals to ensure access to medical care if roads become inaccessible.
Residents have also been urged to avoid unnecessary travel towards Gurez and other higher reaches and refrain from organising social gatherings in vulnerable areas.
Anantnag activates emergency control room
In Anantnag district, the administration has activated its District Emergency Operation Centre (DEOC) round the clock to respond to emergencies and public grievances during the weather spell.
It has directed the Public Works (R&B), Mechanical Engineering, Revenue, Flood Control, PMGSY, Urban Local Bodies, KPDCL, Jal Shakti and Health and Medical Education departments to take precautionary measures and keep manpower and machinery ready.
The administration has issued the following helpline numbers for public assistance: 01932-227112, 9697982527, 7780885759 and 9419091681. Dedicated police control room numbers have also been made available for emergencies.
Winter precipitation and its significance
Western Disturbances are extra-tropical weather systems originating in the Mediterranean region and adjoining areas. They are the primary source of winter precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir, replenishing mountain snow cover, sustaining water resources and supporting the region’s agricultural and horticultural economy.
For apple-growing areas, winter precipitation is particularly important, while snowfall in higher reaches contributes to the region’s water resources.
However, the timing and intensity of precipitation remain important considerations amid increasingly erratic weather patterns, including prolonged dry spells followed by intense spells of rain or snowfall.
The approaching system also carries significance for tourism. Fresh snowfall in Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Sonamarg and Doodhpathri could attract visitors and signal the beginning of the winter tourism season. Heavy accumulation in higher reaches, however, may disrupt transport, power supply and access to essential services.
With the main weather activity expected between November 12 and 14, the immediate priority for the administration is to keep essential services operational and ensure that residents and visitors in vulnerable areas are not stranded by sudden weather-related disruptions.
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