The cacophony of the political campaign is getting louder with each passing day in Uttarakhand as the state is going for polls 3 months later. While the ruling BJP is creating noise over nationalism, the INC is confronting BJP over rising inflation (Particularly of petroleum products & essential goods), unemployment, and a crumbling health care system of the state. A deeper insight into the recent eventswhich have unfolded in the country & how they are going to affect the politically vibrant atmosphere ofUttarakhand, clearly hints out that the state, which has a history of “change of guard” every five years issurely going to throw some surprises.
Farmer-Agitation:-
Political pundits believe that barring Udhamsingh Nagar and a few areas of Haridwar, there will not bemuch of an impact and affect of farmer agitation on Uttarakhand polls and voting behavior. Farmeragitation saw large scale participation of two communities; Jats of Haridwar and Sikhs fromUdhamsingh Nagar. Those farmers who are living in the upper reaches of the Himalayan state have mostly small pieces of land, they are not much well off and are marginalized as well. Their kins and family are either working in defense or have moved out of state. They have almost left farming. Jats of Haridwar and Sikhs of Udhamsingh Nagar were actively involved and associated with agitation and that is why it will have a major impact on electoral results in Haridwar and Udhamsingh Nagar district.
Udhamsingh Nagar district has 9 assembly segments. Since BJP alleged farmers protests were motivatedand called them Khalistanis, Naxalites and accused them that an anti-national campaign was being propagated under the grab of farmer agitation, so it is obvious that farmer agitation will have major impact on electoral results. This was the main reason that the Senior BJP cabinet minister who was holding transport portfolio resigned from the party and switched to the Congress along with son SanjeevArya who is representing Nainital assembly segment. YashpalArya was representing Bazpur assembly seat which falls in Udhamsingh Nagar district and is being considered a popular face in the Udham Singh Nagar and Nainital district of the Kumoan region, his value and importance can be understood from the fact that CM PushkarDhami himself tried hard to convince him not to switch over to Congress.
Political reach out:-Prime Minister NarendraModi visited the Himalayan state twice in past one month to help the party to retain the power in the state as the party has been ruling the state for 4 years. Earlier, he visited the AlIMS -Rishikesh to inaugurate oxygen plants on October 4, and Kedarnath on November 5. The Political atmosphere in the state is getting charged up with each passing day. The party has lined up visits of
high-profile central leaders in the election-bound state. In the last one and half months, top leaders like Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have visited the state either for public meetings or launching projects, whereas former Congress president Rahul Gandhi also began the Uttarakhand assembly election campaign of Congress while addressing the Vijay Samman rally in Dehradun. With the election rallies of Prime Minister NarendraModi and Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, the political scenario across the state is further warming up.
AAP Factor and Anti Incumbency: AAP is in the fray this time and is looking to make inroads ahead of the 2022 assembly elections in the state. Party Convenor and Delhi Chief Minister ArvindKejriwal visited hill state twice in the recent past and promised to take big steps to end migration from Uttarakhand, assuring an unemployment allowance. Though AAP started Campaigning on a good note, there was an overwhelming response in a few areas of the state and party workers were enthusiastic till September. Party ConvenorArvindKejriwal visited & promised to end migration from Uttarakhand, assuring free Pilgrimage and incentives amounting to Rs 1000 will to every woman above 18 years if voted to power.There is internal infighting inside the party unit of Uttarakhand, Central leadership is calling shots from Delhi and has demotivated state-based leaders who are working on the ground across the state lowering expectations of AAP to make satisfactory political inroads in Uttarakhand. The heavy anti-incumbency against the BJP has made political strategists feel that AAP’s rise will help BJP's cause in coming upelections. It will help BJP by dividing anti-establishment and minority votes to stall Congress’ gains. Political Experts believe that they won't make any major impact in the hill state, since they have no faith, presence, and grass-root level strength. They will only spoil the game of congress and that will indirectly benefit BJP.
Disappointment in the hills vis a viz migration to other states:- People especially in hilly areas are of the opinion that the promises made to them in the previous
election BJP were not fulfilled. Migration is a serious economic and demographic issue in Uttarakhand. There is huge unemployment in the state. There are hardly any vacancies for the Govt jobs in any sector.The state ranked ninth in the country in terms of the unemployment rate as revealed in the survey of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd (CMIE). NSO data in the year 2020 on jobs show that nearly one-third of the state’s urban youth are unemployed. This eventually leads to the migration of otherwise talented workforce to other states since the government has miserably failed to contain & concentrate its the workforce in the Himalayan state; triggering a migration crisis with 8% of the workforce moving to plains from hilly areas.
Crumbling Healthcare System:-Uttarakhand's healthcare system is going through a terrible crisis. Since doctors are not willing to serve people in hilly and rural areas, the majority of super-specialist doctors are vacant in almost every hospital in the hills for a long time. According to NITI Aayog Report 2019, Uttrakhand is at the bottom in State wise Health Index report. The condition of the Health system has crumbled & worsened during the last five years of BJP regime. The State's health budget was Rs 188 crore in 2018-19 but that was reduced to just Rs 97 crore in 2019-20. The mismanagement of the Covid crisis has also had an impact on the way people look at the health infrastructure since Uttarakhand was not an exception in the BJP ruled states which mismanaged the COVID 19-second wave.
Caste Dominance:
Caste has always played a vital role in making and changing the political landscapes in Indian Politics. With a similar impact in Uttarakhand politics, Caste will play its role. Dominated by the Upper Class, Uttarakhand is dominated by just two major castes: Brahmins and Thakurs. There is approximately 25% of the population being Brahmin. Followed by Thakur 40%, Dalits 19%, Muslims 14% and 3% of the population belongs to the Sikh community. Initially Dalit belt was reserved vote bank for Congress, but BJP in 2017 promised Dalits that they will take concentrate steps for their welfare and can give wings to their aspirations, if voted to power, however they failed to meet even their basic demands. Axe has always fallen on Dalit community in India, discrimination in terms of lack of education; resources are what they face in their routine life. After getting cold shoulder from the BJP, congress succeeded to motivate Dalit leader Yashpal Arya to join hands with them. He is seen as holding influence on Dalit community especially in Kumoan region, he has the power to help Congress in building their image in Dalit community. But so far he has shown no relevance among his brethren.
BJP & its politics of failure; 3 CM's in 4 years:-Initially, there was huge anti-incumbency against ruling BJP only in hilly regions because of migration & deteriorating of the healthcare system. But the situation has turned hostile for them even in plain areas now. In Uttarakhand BJP had to change 3 CMs within a span of four years with Pushkar Singh Dhami now holding the chair after ousting of the Rawat duo. It is a matter of fact and obvious when state governments and parties are run by remote control from Delhi, with the high command is calling shots from Delhi, they become weak. Moreover, Nodia based surveys calling roads smooth for BJP in hilly terrains of the Himalayan state that has always thrown surprises, have not felt the real pulse of what the mountains are echoing.
Political Infighting within Congress; and no substitute to Harish Rawat:-
There is Political infighting and factionalism within the state unit of Congress in Uttarakhand. It will surely halt and have an impact on campaigning ahead of assembly elections in the state. It is fact that the state unit of the party is grappling with a number of issues. But, former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat has been trying to broaden the Congress base and fix fissures at the grassroots level across the hill state. Rawat is being considered the most preferred candidate for the post of chief minister in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state. Analysts believe, he has a rock-solid mass base across the state and has universal acceptability among people. He is State's only leader who is a popular face in both Garhwal to Kumoan region and is the most popular choice for people in coming up assembly elections. Rawat has been extensively touring the state in the last two years increased his tours, established himself as the "only leader" with a mass appeal across the state.
But, Having publicly declared his reluctance to contest the assembly election early next year, the Thakurleader, speaking at a ‘ParivartanYatra’ rally, said he would like to see a Dalit chief minister in Uttarakhand. Dalits constitute about 18 percent of the state’s population. But political analysts are of an entirely different opinion. They opine that while the Congress high command may be inclined toproject a younger face in Uttarakhand, Rawat remains the best bet under the circumstances. Besides, they say, the former CM is not known to open his cards so easily and, therefore, it’s premature to conclude that Rawatis out of the chief ministerial race. To make his presence among masses, Rawat has socialized his political life by involving himself in different cultures, Rawat has been captured while partcipating in the customs and traditions of different ethnic and cultural groups to make them feel one among them.
Fingers Crossed:It may be noted that BJP won a thumping mandate with 57 seats while Congress was restricted to mere 11 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections. Despite the brute majority within the house, BJP had to make frequent changes of leadership in the state. But this time whether Congress will spring a surprise Or BJP will retain its power in the Himalayan state by breaking history since the state has never given any party a consecutive term. The upcoming assembly polls will decide the fate of both the parties and it will be interesting to keep an eye on the election.
