Kashmir Slips Into “Silent Emergency” as Water Shortage Intensifies

 

Suhail Khan

SRINAGAR, Dec. 09: The Kashmir Valley is in the grip of a critical and worsening water crisis, driven by a severe and protracted deficit in precipitation that scientists warn signals a broader climatic shift. This emerging “silent emergency” threatens not only the Kashmir’s famed landscapes but also the foundations of its economy and food security.

An alarming 83% shortfall in rainfall this season—categorized as “very low”—has drastically reduced flows in the region’s rivers, tributaries, and natural springs, jeopardizing water supplies across all ten districts.

The Jhelum River, the valley’s lifeline, has registered historically low levels, dropping to a reading of -0.53 feet at the Sangam monitoring station. Similarly diminished levels at Ram Munshi Bagh and Asham signal a profound disturbance in the region’s hydrological balance.

Compounding the crisis, major tributaries—including the Lidder, Rambiara, Ferozepora Nallah, and Pohru River—are flowing far below seasonal norms. This decline imperils drinking water, agricultural irrigation, and the replenishment of already stressed groundwater reserves.

The crisis casts a harsh light on the escalating climate vulnerabilities facing the Himalayan region, demanding urgent policy intervention and sustainable water management.

Independent meteorological data reveals a stark contrast: against an average November rainfall of 35.2 mm, the valley received a mere 6.1 mm this year. The Indian Meteorological Department forecasts continued dry conditions for the coming fortnight, with only isolated, light snowfall anticipated at higher altitudes.

“Kashmir’s deepening water scarcity has quietly escalated into a serious environmental emergency,” said Faizan, an independent weather forecaster based in Kashmir, in an interview with the Kashmir Convener.

He explained that reduced snowfall and rainfall over recent winters have critically weakened the natural groundwater recharge process, which depends on gradual snowmelt and consistent precipitation. As these inputs decline, perennial springs are drying up and water tables are falling.

“The encroachment on natural recharge zones has worsened the situation,” Faizan added. “Large-scale construction is sealing permeable wetlands, floodplains, and open soils. Concrete and asphalt now block infiltration, turning precipitation into rapid runoff instead of underground storage.”

Environmentalists warn the snow deficit and higher temperatures could trigger a cascade of cryosphere-related hazards, including permafrost degradation, slope failures, and accelerated glacier retreat.

“Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh house some of the largest glaciers in the Hindu Kush region,” said environmentalist Syed Raqeem while talking to Kashmir Convener. “Kolahoi, the largest glacier in Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to rising temperatures. Thajiwas, Hoksar, and others are melting fast.”

He cautioned that a prolonged dry spell would be “disastrous,” impacting water availability for hydropower, irrigation, and flood management, with potential ramifications for interstate water-sharing agreements.

The energy sector is already feeling the strain. A junior engineer from the Kashmir Power Development Corporation Limited (KPDCL), speaking to Kashmir Convener on condition of anonymity, stated that the absence of peak winter snowfall will severely impact electricity generation.

“Despite a potential of 20,000 megawatts, current output is around 1,200 megawatts due to the dry spell,” the official said. “Water levels in reservoirs are at a minimum, with generation currently as low as 250 megawatts. If snow doesn’t arrive, the situation will become dire, affecting power supplies beyond Jammu & Kashmir.”

For Kashmir’s farmers, the lack of snow is an immediate economic threat. The Kashmir’s iconic apple and horticulture industries rely on winter chill to suppress pests and promote healthy bud development, while snow provides essential insulation and soil moisture.

“Adequate snowfall is non-negotiable for high-quality fruit,” said Khurshid Ahmad Lone, an apple grower from Baramulla. “If this continues, it poses a grave risk to the livelihoods of growers who depend on a successful harvest.”

Fayaz Ahmad Dar, a fruit grower from Kupwara with over thirty years of experience, described unprecedented challenges.

Speaking to Kashmir Convener he said, “I once handled transactions for 30,000 apple boxes annually in Delhi. Volumes have sharply declined, and this dry spell intensifies our plight,” he said.

Fayaz Ahmad Malik, President of the Sopore Fruit Mandi—Asia’s second-largest told Kashmir Convener that the prolonged dry weather has caused deep worry across the industry.

“Everyone, grower or buyer, is concerned,” Malik stated. “Snow is vital. This dryness will adversely affect orchards if it continues.”

Notably, The Kashmir Valley faces a multi-fronted crisis that transcends environmental concern, morphing into an urgent threat to regional stability and prosperity. The silent emergency, experts and citizens agree, can no longer be ignored.