Azad’s Political Transaction: High Stakes, Complex Challenges and Unpredictable Outcomes

On August 26 Ghulam Nabi Azad, a Congress veteran resigned from the party with sharp jibes at the Gandhis and the organisational leadership citing the sidelining of senior leaders and the increasing sway of a "coterie of inexperienced sycophants" as the reasons behind his exit from the party. After resigning from the Congress On 26 September 2022 former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad launched his own party after ending his 50 years stint with the grand old party. After floating of Azad ‘s new Political party what remains central to Kashmir’s politics is what will Azad's electoral debut in Jammu and Kashmir elections entail for the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir?

Political Pundits say the relationship between Congress and Azad broke irretrievably after the Congress chief denied Azad, an extension in Rajya Sabha, the Upper house in 2021. Eyebrows were raised when Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised Azad while delivering an emotional speech during the Congress leader’s farewell in Rajya Sabha in 2021.

Azads' Political Career has been distinctively eventful, became a Union Minister at the age of 33, served as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, was a two-term Lok Sabha and five-term Rajya Sabha member, a former Leader of the Opposition (LoP) and a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC). After launching his party, Azad claimed that his newly launched party will have "no competition" with any other political party and will focus on "strengthening" peace and normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir. Azad claimed that he is a secular person and his party will not discriminate people on the basis of religion and region.

On Article 370, Azad said Restoration of special status is unlikely to happen, and he won't mislead people like other parties. To restore Article 370, political parties would need a majority in the Lok Sabha of around 350 votes and 175 votes in the Rajya Sabha. No political party has or is likely to ever get it soon. The number of Congress MPs (in the Lok Sabha) has come down to below 50 seats. He stated that he cannot motivate, insist and influence the Prime Minister and Home Minister. If anyone has the power to persuade the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister, they should do it. But I do not have any such influence on them (Modi and Shah). I couldn’t influence them in the parliament, how can I do it from here now?

Speaking on Azad's return to JK Politics, Political Analyst Zafar Choudhary said that, Azad has 43 years of legislative experience and he had spent all these years in national politics, from Lok Sabha to Rajya Sabha to Leader of Opposition. Sustaining over 4 decades in national politics that too in one party is not everybody's cup of tea and is impossible.” “The stature of Azad is very high, he has a social base across the Union territory, from Kathua to Kupwara despite deep division of caste, religion, region and communal. You can't take him lightly, as he is an important factor now in J&K Politics” added Zafar.

He believes Azad as Chief Minister during 2005- 2008 has earned a certain amount of goodwill, particularly in the Jammu region. Even in Muslim-majority Kashmir, Azad may be able to garner good number of votes for his new Party.

However, political Analysts feel that Azad’s stand on Article 370 may not go well in Kashmir Valley and could affect the electoral prospects of his party. Many politicians allege that Azad has blessings from the Prime Minister and his aim and focus is to divide the secular vote bank for larger benefits of BJP. Thought it wouldn't impact the Muslim vote bank especially in the Chenab and Pir-Panchal Region.

Though there were reports and speculations about leaders and Former MLAs from other parties joining Azads' newly launched party, but no one has switched their loyalties over to Azad as of now. But as of now, it seems the people of J&K have no hope on Azad, because he has launched his party very untimingly. People were expected some political leaders & parties to come out at the time when Article 370 was abrogated which created a great vacuum. No political party or leader at the National level came out to represent the aspirations of the people of J&K.

Political Pundits say that when we see the stand of Azad regarding 370, he has totally compromised and has rather asked for things (Job security, land rights) that which ruling party has already agreed, mentioned & promised on the floor of the House of the parliament, but the core issue is restoration of Article 370, for which he is acting as mute.

It is believed that Azad's entry into Kashmir will reduce the regional parties, especially NC and PDP in Muslim-majority areas of Jammu. Second that, the Azad factor in Jammu will obviously cut the vote share between different parties will benefit the BJP to a large extent. At the same time, the fact can’t be undermined that Azad took the decision in a hurry. He is unaware about the ground situation in Kashmir which has changed in a big way over the years. There is a big difference between Delhi and Kashmir, sitting in Delhi to do national politics and to know the ground reality and pulse of masses are entirely two different things.

Kashmir's Major political parties NC and PDP are cadre-based parties. People's Conference too have their own base in various quarters of North Kashmir. They are major stakeholders compared to Azad, but this is a fact that Azad has earned goodwill in both regions during his term as CM and later as Union Health Minister as well. It will be interesting to see how Azad will be able to position himself and to get support from both the regions, only time will decide.

At this juncture, Ghulam Nabi Azad faces significant challenges in garnering strong support in Kashmir for several reasons. Firstly, his untimely exit from Congress and subsequent formation of a new party raised eyebrows, leaving people sceptical about his political decisions. Azad's unclear stance on Article 370, a critical issue in Kashmir, may alienate voters who are passionate about the region's special status. While Azad boasts a formidable political career and a broad social base, his perceived lack of clarity on key issues and the belief that he may be indirectly benefiting the BJP by dividing the secular vote further dampen his prospects. The recent return of leaders to the Congress folds instead of joining Azad's party underscores his struggle to attract influential figures.

Moreover, Azad's decision-making appears hasty, and his understanding of the evolving ground reality in Kashmir is questioned. The established cadre-based nature of major political parties in the region, such as the NC and PDP, poses a formidable challenge for Azad to carve a niche for his party. Ultimately, whether Azad can effectively position himself and gain support from both the Jammu and Kashmir regions remains uncertain, with only time holding the answer to this complex political equation.

(Nasir Khuehami is National Convener of J&K Students Association and Ummar Jamal is National spokesperson of J&K students Association)